INFLUENCING METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ON SPRING FLOODS OF MOUNTAIN RIVERS
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Abstract
The influence of environmental factors on spring (April) floods of 34 medium and small rivers in the Altai-Sayan mountain country was studied. Using the developed methodology for intelligent analysis of experimental data (system analytical modeling), we developed an analytical models and revealed a complex dependence of floods on monthly precipitation and average monthly air temperatures from September to April, as well as the height and landscape structure of the river basins. We characterized changing meteorological factors via a percentage of their long-term average values that allowed to unify their monthly and long-term dynamics throughout the country. Data on the relief and landscape structure of river basins were calculated by ArcGIS 10.2 using landscape maps of the territory. Model development and quantification of environmental factor influence on floods were carried out by solving an inverse mathematical problem using about 2000 values of river flows observed in 1951–2020. The high quality, simplicity and universality of the models enable us to use them in forecasting spring floods of mountain rivers.
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